As Americans mark Labor Day and the traditional start of the fall campaign season, new polling indicates President Donald Trump is entering the final stretch before the midterm elections with significantly weakened support. According to a Newsweek analysis of Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters, the president's approval ratings have dropped substantially since he returned to office on January 20, 2025. Nationally, Trump currently stands at 34 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, resulting in a net approval rating of minus 26.
Weakness Across Battleground States
The state-level picture mirrors the national trend, with support remaining strongest only in deep-red states but showing negative results across every major battleground. Trump is currently underwater in all key swing states likely to determine control of Congress. In Florida, his net rating has moved from positive 9 at the start of his term to minus 13 on Labor Day. Similarly, Ohio has fallen from plus 8 to minus 19.
Other critical states have seen even steeper declines. Nevada shifted from zero approval to minus 25, while North Carolina dropped from zero to minus 18. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also show negative net ratings of minus 20 and minus 19, respectively. These figures suggest that Trump enters the fall campaign season in a weaker position across the electoral map than when his second term began.
Demographic Shifts and Historical Context
Demographic breakdowns help explain these state-level patterns. Young voters aged 18 to 34 show only 21 percent approval, while independents remain heavily negative with 65 percent disapproval. Women disapprove by a significant margin of 65-to-29. The White House has responded to the polling data by pointing to Trump's November 2024 election victory as context. Spokesman Davis Ingle argued that nearly 80 million Americans elected Trump on a "popular and commonsense agenda," citing progress in jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, as this newspaper reported in Trump Approval Drops Among White Voters This Summer, Polls Show.
However, historical comparisons highlight the current political challenge. At a comparable point before the 2018 midterms, Civiqs recorded Trump at a net rating of minus 10. Today's figure of minus 26 represents a more difficult landscape for congressional and statewide races. While approval ratings do not directly predict election outcomes, they remain one of the most closely watched indicators of the political environment facing candidates in competitive regions.
