Tropical Storm Bertha strengthened on Tuesday morning as it moved closer to the Gulf Coast, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to extend tropical storm warnings into Florida. As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory issued July 21, 2026, the center of Bertha was located approximately 120 miles west-southwest of Panama City and 105 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama. The storm is moving west at a speed of 6 mph with maximum sustained winds reaching 60 mph and higher gusts.
Warnings Extend Across the Gulf Coast
The NHC has expanded its tropical storm warning to include seven Florida counties. This warning area now runs from the Bay-Gulf County line westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, encompassing metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Additionally, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for areas west of Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana, as well as Lake Maurepas.
NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch noted that the system is expected to maintain a west-northwestward or westward motion from Wednesday through Friday. "On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days," Pasch stated. Tropical-storm-force winds are extending outward up to 115 miles from Bertha’s center. A wind gust reaching 43 mph was recently reported at Pensacola Beach.
Flood Risks and Storm Surge Concerns
While a storm surge warning previously in place for parts of the Gulf Coast has been discontinued, the National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for portions of the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coastline. Rainfall totals are forecast to range from 2 to 4 inches through Thursday, with some areas potentially seeing up to 6 inches along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations stretching from western Florida into southern Louisiana.
Storm surge estimates indicate that water levels could rise by 2 to 4 feet from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi-Alabama border. From Cameron, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Mississippi, as well as from the Mississippi-Alabama border eastward to the Aucilla River in Florida and Lake Pontchartrain, surges are expected between 1 and 3 feet. Swells along the coast may also cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Season Context and Forecast
Bertha developed from what was previously the second tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season, spinning into a named storm by 8 p.m. Monday with winds at 40 mph before intensifying further through Tuesday morning. NHC senior hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart indicated that models suggest the system is likely at its peak intensity and should begin to gradually weaken over the next few days due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear.
This season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30, with the height of hurricane season typically occurring from mid-August into October. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects this year’s activity to be below normal, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 would become hurricanes.
