A new public opinion poll released on July 20 indicates that the general election races for Florida's U.S. Senate seat and governor are "notably closer" than in recent years, though Republican candidates still maintain leads over their Democratic opponents. The survey was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida (UNF), providing critical data as voters prepare for the November 3 general election with early voting set to begin in late October.
Senate Race Shows Narrow Margin
In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic candidate and state representative Angie Nixon holds a slight lead over Republican Alex Vindman when each is matched against incumbent Ashley Moody. The poll found that 42% of likely voters support Nixon compared to 40% for Vindman. However, this margin falls within the survey's error range of 3.8 percentage points. Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody leads both Democratic challengers with 50% support.
The number of undecided voters is declining as the election approaches, standing at just 7% for Nixon and 6% for Vindman, down from double-digit figures in previous surveys. Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL’s faculty director, noted that despite different ideological approaches, both Democratic candidates perform similarly, suggesting internal party debates may not yet significantly impact voter behavior.
Gubernatorial Race Tightens
The race for governor also shows increased competitiveness. Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads presumptive Democratic nominee David Jolly by five percentage points (46% to 41%), with 6% undecided. This represents a one-point tightening compared to the last UNF-PORL poll released in March, where Jolly trailed by six points.
Jolly is currently facing scrutiny regarding his past professional ties to businessman Leo Govoni, who has been charged with stealing over $100 million from a special needs trust fund. Jolly worked for one of Govoni’s companies more than a decade ago and received campaign support from him but denies any knowledge or involvement in the alleged fraud.
Approval Ratings and Voter Registration
The poll also highlighted approval ratings for prominent Florida politicians. Governor Ron DeSantis holds a 57% job approval rating, while Marco Rubio, now U.S. Secretary of State, sits at 56%. President Donald Trump received the lowest overall ratings among those surveyed, with 48% approving and 51% disapproving.
Despite the tightening races, Florida remains politically red on paper. As of June 30, state records show approximately 5.5 million registered Republicans compared to roughly 4 million Democrats and 3.8 million voters with no party affiliation or third-party registration. The survey interviewed 848 likely midterm voters between July 8 and July 17.
